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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College0.60+3.06vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire-0.99+7.53vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire-0.00+4.84vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69+4.35vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont-0.02+0.74vs Predicted
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6McGill University-0.37+0.78vs Predicted
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7University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42+4.39vs Predicted
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8Bentley University-1.10+2.10vs Predicted
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9McGill University-0.89-0.01vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University-0.80-1.40vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.43-0.01vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20-1.02vs Predicted
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13Boston University-0.79-4.35vs Predicted
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14Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.82-1.50vs Predicted
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15Middlebury College-1.42-4.68vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy-0.65-7.78vs Predicted
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17Williams College-0.90-7.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.06Connecticut College0.6020.2%1st Place
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9.53University of New Hampshire-0.994.5%1st Place
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7.84University of New Hampshire-0.006.8%1st Place
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8.35Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.696.0%1st Place
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5.74University of Vermont-0.0211.9%1st Place
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6.78McGill University-0.378.6%1st Place
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11.39University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.423.0%1st Place
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10.1Bentley University-1.103.6%1st Place
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8.99McGill University-0.894.3%1st Place
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8.6Northeastern University-0.805.9%1st Place
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10.99Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.433.1%1st Place
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10.98University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.202.4%1st Place
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8.65Boston University-0.794.1%1st Place
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12.5Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.822.2%1st Place
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10.32Middlebury College-1.423.5%1st Place
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8.22Maine Maritime Academy-0.656.2%1st Place
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9.95Williams College-0.903.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz Baldauf | 20.2% | 17.3% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Poynter | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% |
| James Sullivan | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| William Denker | 11.9% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Colston Howell | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Andy Giaya | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 13.2% |
| Wilfred Hynes | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| Adrien Blanc | 5.9% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Joseph Gedraitis | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 11.7% |
| Cole Perra | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% |
| Christopher Macken | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Jessica Elmhurst | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 24.7% |
| William Procter | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% |
| Griffin Stolp | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.