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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College0.60+3.07vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire-0.00+5.74vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont-0.02+2.75vs Predicted
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4Bentley University-1.10+6.05vs Predicted
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5McGill University-0.89+4.07vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-0.82+2.84vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University-0.80+1.69vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy-0.65+0.19vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69-0.79vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College-1.42+0.43vs Predicted
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11Boston University-0.79-2.28vs Predicted
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12McGill University-0.37-5.04vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.43-1.81vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20-3.09vs Predicted
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15University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42-3.39vs Predicted
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16Williams College-0.90-6.05vs Predicted
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17Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.82-4.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.07Connecticut College0.6020.2%1st Place
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7.74University of New Hampshire-0.006.0%1st Place
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5.75University of Vermont-0.0212.6%1st Place
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10.05Bentley University-1.103.6%1st Place
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9.07McGill University-0.894.5%1st Place
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8.84University of New Hampshire-0.825.5%1st Place
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8.69Northeastern University-0.805.3%1st Place
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8.19Maine Maritime Academy-0.655.9%1st Place
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8.21Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.696.1%1st Place
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10.43Middlebury College-1.423.0%1st Place
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8.72Boston University-0.794.5%1st Place
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6.96McGill University-0.378.9%1st Place
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11.19Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.432.8%1st Place
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10.91University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.202.9%1st Place
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11.61University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.422.6%1st Place
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9.95Williams College-0.903.8%1st Place
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12.61Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.821.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz Baldauf | 20.2% | 17.3% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Sullivan | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| William Denker | 12.6% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Wilfred Hynes | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Jake Lacoche | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% |
| Adrien Blanc | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| Griffin Stolp | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| William Procter | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% |
| Christopher Macken | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Colston Howell | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Joseph Gedraitis | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 12.4% |
| Cole Perra | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| Andy Giaya | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 15.7% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% |
| Jessica Elmhurst | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 24.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.