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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College0.60+3.13vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69+6.33vs Predicted
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3Boston University-0.79+5.46vs Predicted
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4Bentley University-1.10+6.02vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire-0.82+3.72vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont-0.02-0.28vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-0.00+0.88vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy-0.65+0.26vs Predicted
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9McGill University-0.89+0.09vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.43+1.07vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-1.42-0.38vs Predicted
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12McGill University-0.37-5.03vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20-1.95vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42-2.57vs Predicted
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15Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.82-2.40vs Predicted
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16Williams College-0.90-5.99vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University-0.80-8.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13Connecticut College0.6019.8%1st Place
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8.33Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.696.1%1st Place
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8.46Boston University-0.796.0%1st Place
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10.02Bentley University-1.103.5%1st Place
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8.72University of New Hampshire-0.825.5%1st Place
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5.72University of Vermont-0.0211.5%1st Place
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7.88University of New Hampshire-0.006.6%1st Place
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8.26Maine Maritime Academy-0.655.9%1st Place
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9.09McGill University-0.894.8%1st Place
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11.07Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.432.9%1st Place
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10.62Middlebury College-1.422.8%1st Place
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6.97McGill University-0.378.2%1st Place
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11.05University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.203.0%1st Place
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11.43University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.422.6%1st Place
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12.6Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.821.8%1st Place
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10.01Williams College-0.903.9%1st Place
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8.63Northeastern University-0.805.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz Baldauf | 19.8% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Christopher Macken | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Wilfred Hynes | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% |
| Jake Lacoche | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| William Denker | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| James Sullivan | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Griffin Stolp | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Joseph Gedraitis | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 12.2% |
| William Procter | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% |
| Colston Howell | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Cole Perra | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.8% |
| Andy Giaya | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 14.4% |
| Jessica Elmhurst | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 24.5% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% |
| Adrien Blanc | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.