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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.94vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.32+5.01vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.78+5.81vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.39+5.93vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.17vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.82+2.63vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.62+2.85vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.71+1.90vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.73-1.46vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-1.65vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.12+0.35vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University2.10-4.46vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.81-2.37vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.14-2.30vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida0.90-3.21vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.88-6.48vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-5.71vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.72-4.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.94St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.8%1st Place
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7.01University of Miami2.329.2%1st Place
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8.81North Carolina State University1.785.8%1st Place
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9.93Boston University1.394.1%1st Place
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8.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.2%1st Place
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8.63George Washington University1.825.7%1st Place
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9.85Fordham University1.625.2%1st Place
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9.9Northeastern University1.715.0%1st Place
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7.54Webb Institute1.737.5%1st Place
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8.35University of California at Santa Barbara1.787.3%1st Place
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11.35University of Michigan1.122.9%1st Place
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7.54Jacksonville University2.107.8%1st Place
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10.63Old Dominion University1.813.3%1st Place
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11.7University of Wisconsin1.142.9%1st Place
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11.79University of South Florida0.903.2%1st Place
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9.52SUNY Maritime College1.885.2%1st Place
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11.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.7%1st Place
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13.04University of Vermont0.722.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Adam Larson | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% |
| Will Murray | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| Will Priebe | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% |
| Owen Bannasch | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 13.6% |
| Andreas Keswater | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
| Lars Osell | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 22.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.