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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.98vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.10+5.72vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.88+6.59vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.78+4.86vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.62+4.91vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan1.12+5.31vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81+3.89vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.14+3.78vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.71+1.23vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.19vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-2.57vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-3.99vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.32-6.02vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.82-5.42vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.72-2.25vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.73-8.77vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida0.90-5.16vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.39-8.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.98St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.3%1st Place
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7.72Jacksonville University2.107.7%1st Place
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9.59SUNY Maritime College1.884.5%1st Place
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8.86North Carolina State University1.786.1%1st Place
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9.91Fordham University1.624.5%1st Place
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11.31University of Michigan1.123.2%1st Place
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10.89Old Dominion University1.813.8%1st Place
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11.78University of Wisconsin1.143.2%1st Place
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10.23Northeastern University1.714.2%1st Place
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11.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.6%1st Place
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8.43University of California at Santa Barbara1.786.2%1st Place
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8.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.0%1st Place
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6.98University of Miami2.328.6%1st Place
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8.58George Washington University1.826.8%1st Place
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12.75University of Vermont0.721.9%1st Place
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7.23Webb Institute1.739.2%1st Place
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11.84University of South Florida0.902.5%1st Place
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9.73Boston University1.394.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Owen Hennessey | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Owen Bannasch | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
Spencer Barnes | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% |
Adam Larson | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
Patrick Dolan | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% |
Joe Serpa | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.7% |
Noyl Odom | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% |
Charlie Herrick | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 13.8% |
Will Priebe | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% |
Lars Osell | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% |
Jonathan Seawards | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
Will Murray | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
Atlee Kohl | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
Tyler Wood | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
Ryan Potter | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 18.9% |
Rayne Duff | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
Andreas Keswater | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 11.9% |
Noah Robitshek | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.