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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.04vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.62+7.96vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+5.53vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.39+5.97vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.14+6.73vs Predicted
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6University of Miami2.32+1.10vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81+3.93vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.78+0.80vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+2.24vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-2.02vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.82-2.63vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.73-4.91vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.71-2.95vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.39vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida0.90-3.30vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.12-4.63vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University2.10-9.22vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.72-5.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.8%1st Place
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9.96Fordham University1.624.7%1st Place
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8.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.786.7%1st Place
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9.97Boston University1.393.5%1st Place
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11.73University of Wisconsin1.142.3%1st Place
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7.1University of Miami2.327.8%1st Place
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10.93Old Dominion University1.813.2%1st Place
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8.8North Carolina State University1.786.0%1st Place
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11.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.6%1st Place
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7.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.0%1st Place
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8.37George Washington University1.827.1%1st Place
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7.09Webb Institute1.739.3%1st Place
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10.05Northeastern University1.713.9%1st Place
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9.61SUNY Maritime College1.885.0%1st Place
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11.7University of South Florida0.903.5%1st Place
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11.37University of Michigan1.123.9%1st Place
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7.78Jacksonville University2.107.6%1st Place
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12.74University of Vermont0.722.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.7% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% |
| Adam Larson | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Lars Osell | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% |
| Will Murray | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Will Priebe | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| Andreas Keswater | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| Joe Serpa | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% |
| Owen Bannasch | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 21.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.