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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+7.55vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.88+7.39vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.90vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.32+3.00vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.81+5.76vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.13vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.62+2.98vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.71+2.11vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.78-0.07vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University2.10-2.29vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida0.90+0.83vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.14-0.43vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.82-4.76vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-3.89vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-3.81vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.73-8.48vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-5.74vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.72-5.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.55University of California at Santa Barbara1.785.8%1st Place
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9.39SUNY Maritime College1.885.1%1st Place
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5.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.5%1st Place
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7.0University of Miami2.329.2%1st Place
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10.76Old Dominion University1.813.4%1st Place
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8.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.6%1st Place
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9.98Fordham University1.625.1%1st Place
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10.11Northeastern University1.714.8%1st Place
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8.93North Carolina State University1.785.4%1st Place
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7.71Jacksonville University2.108.0%1st Place
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11.83University of South Florida0.903.0%1st Place
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11.57University of Wisconsin1.143.5%1st Place
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8.24George Washington University1.827.5%1st Place
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10.11Boston University1.394.5%1st Place
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11.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.5%1st Place
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7.52Webb Institute1.737.5%1st Place
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11.26University of Michigan1.123.1%1st Place
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12.82University of Vermont0.722.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.5% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% |
| Will Murray | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
| Will Priebe | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% |
| Adam Larson | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Owen Bannasch | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Andreas Keswater | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 13.3% |
| Charlie Herrick | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% |
| Lars Osell | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Joe Serpa | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.3% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 20.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.