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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.93vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+6.27vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.81+7.76vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.71+6.11vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.62vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.15vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.73+0.31vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.14+3.56vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.32-1.80vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.78-1.20vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+0.32vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.82-3.43vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.39-3.18vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.10-6.19vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida0.90-3.03vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.62-6.11vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-5.73vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.72-5.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.6%1st Place
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8.27University of California at Santa Barbara1.786.3%1st Place
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10.76Old Dominion University1.813.9%1st Place
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10.11Northeastern University1.714.2%1st Place
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9.62SUNY Maritime College1.885.4%1st Place
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8.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.3%1st Place
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7.31Webb Institute1.738.3%1st Place
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11.56University of Wisconsin1.143.4%1st Place
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7.2University of Miami2.328.8%1st Place
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8.8North Carolina State University1.785.8%1st Place
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11.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.0%1st Place
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8.57George Washington University1.827.2%1st Place
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9.82Boston University1.394.7%1st Place
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7.81Jacksonville University2.107.0%1st Place
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11.97University of South Florida0.902.1%1st Place
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9.89Fordham University1.624.3%1st Place
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11.27University of Michigan1.123.2%1st Place
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12.64University of Vermont0.722.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% |
| Will Priebe | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% |
| Will Murray | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Charlie Herrick | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 10.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Adam Larson | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Lars Osell | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 11.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 13.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 19.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.