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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.01vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.10+5.85vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.78+5.66vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida0.90+7.94vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+6.26vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+2.47vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.32+0.25vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.73-0.70vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.71+0.84vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.62-0.22vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.35vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.39-2.14vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.72-0.24vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.12-2.61vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-6.88vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.81-5.22vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.82-8.56vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.14-6.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.01St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.8%1st Place
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7.85Jacksonville University2.107.2%1st Place
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8.66North Carolina State University1.785.6%1st Place
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11.94University of South Florida0.903.0%1st Place
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11.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.5%1st Place
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8.47University of California at Santa Barbara1.786.0%1st Place
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7.25University of Miami2.328.6%1st Place
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7.3Webb Institute1.739.2%1st Place
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9.84Northeastern University1.715.0%1st Place
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9.78Fordham University1.625.1%1st Place
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9.65SUNY Maritime College1.885.0%1st Place
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9.86Boston University1.394.8%1st Place
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12.76University of Vermont0.721.9%1st Place
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11.39University of Michigan1.123.0%1st Place
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8.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.1%1st Place
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10.78Old Dominion University1.813.9%1st Place
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8.44George Washington University1.826.3%1st Place
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11.65University of Wisconsin1.142.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Owen Bannasch | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Adam Larson | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Andreas Keswater | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
| Lars Osell | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Will Priebe | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 3.9% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 20.2% |
| Joe Serpa | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% |
| Will Murray | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 12.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.