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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+8.36vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.10+5.75vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.78+5.78vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.73+3.36vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+6.25vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.09vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.32+0.18vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.03vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.71+1.25vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.39-0.26vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.14+0.62vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.62-1.91vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.72-0.28vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.81-3.23vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-6.58vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.90-4.22vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-5.75vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.82-9.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.36SUNY Maritime College1.885.1%1st Place
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7.75Jacksonville University2.107.0%1st Place
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8.78North Carolina State University1.785.1%1st Place
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7.36Webb Institute1.739.3%1st Place
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11.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.6%1st Place
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6.09St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.2%1st Place
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7.18University of Miami2.329.4%1st Place
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8.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.8%1st Place
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10.25Northeastern University1.713.7%1st Place
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9.74Boston University1.394.2%1st Place
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11.62University of Wisconsin1.143.1%1st Place
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10.09Fordham University1.624.8%1st Place
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12.72University of Vermont0.722.5%1st Place
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10.77Old Dominion University1.813.5%1st Place
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8.42University of California at Santa Barbara1.786.2%1st Place
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11.78University of South Florida0.903.5%1st Place
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11.25University of Michigan1.124.0%1st Place
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8.55George Washington University1.825.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% |
| Owen Bannasch | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Adam Larson | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Rayne Duff | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Lars Osell | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Will Priebe | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% |
| Charlie Herrick | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 18.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Andreas Keswater | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 13.6% |
| Joe Serpa | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.