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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+6.25vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.57+7.27vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+4.08vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.05+6.10vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+1.31vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.27+2.29vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+1.64vs Predicted
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8University of Miami1.93-0.67vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+0.70vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.07-0.32vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.070.00vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.09-3.45vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.41-0.67vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.09-3.95vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.50-3.99vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.54-7.11vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.43-9.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.25University of California at Santa Barbara1.678.3%1st Place
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9.27Old Dominion University1.575.1%1st Place
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7.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.778.2%1st Place
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10.1University of Vermont1.055.5%1st Place
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6.31Fordham University1.989.8%1st Place
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8.29George Washington University1.275.9%1st Place
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8.64St. Mary's College of Maryland1.766.7%1st Place
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7.33University of Miami1.938.5%1st Place
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9.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.994.4%1st Place
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9.68Northeastern University1.073.8%1st Place
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11.0Boston University1.073.1%1st Place
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8.55North Carolina State University1.096.1%1st Place
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12.33SUNY Maritime College0.411.9%1st Place
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10.05University of Wisconsin1.094.0%1st Place
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11.01University of Michigan0.504.0%1st Place
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8.89University of South Florida1.546.7%1st Place
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7.53Webb Institute1.438.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Boeger | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Madison Bashaw | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Reed McAllister | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% |
| Porter Bell | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 12.3% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 24.6% |
| Abe Weston | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% |
| Brody Schwartz | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.6% |
| Eden Nykamp | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.