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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+3.33vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.11+6.66vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.51+1.19vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.92+1.69vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+1.67vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.57vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia3.01-1.48vs Predicted
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8University of Maryland0.68+5.19vs Predicted
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9William and Mary2.13-0.62vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.38-2.29vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University1.40+0.01vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.07+0.33vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy0.26+1.33vs Predicted
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14Hampton University2.11-5.77vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.02-2.83vs Predicted
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16American University0.83-3.10vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.21-2.29vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.24-3.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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8.66Fordham University2.110.0%1st Place
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4.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.510.2%1st Place
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5.69Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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6.67SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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6.57University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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5.52University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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13.19University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
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8.38William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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7.71George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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11.01Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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12.33Christopher Newport University1.070.0%1st Place
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14.33U. S. Military Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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8.23Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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12.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.020.0%1st Place
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12.9American University0.830.0%1st Place
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14.71Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.38University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 16.4% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Kayla McComb | 17.0% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 10.2% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 8.1% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 9.7% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ian Connors | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Natalie Ross | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| David Geer | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 23.3% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Noel Ingalls | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 4.6% |
| Peter Hays | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 8.5% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 18.8% | 25.1% |
| Adam Rybczynski | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 17.6% | 20.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.