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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+3.33vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.01+3.69vs Predicted
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3Hampton University2.11+5.68vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.51+0.15vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.68+1.54vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.63+0.78vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.17-1.94vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.38-0.56vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.02+3.25vs Predicted
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10William and Mary2.13-1.38vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.11-2.39vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University1.40-0.73vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.07-1.10vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy0.26+0.27vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland0.68-1.71vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.21-1.25vs Predicted
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17American University0.83-4.05vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.24-3.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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5.69University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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8.68Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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4.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.510.2%1st Place
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6.54University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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6.78SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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5.06Old Dominion University3.170.1%1st Place
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7.44George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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12.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.020.0%1st Place
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8.62William and Mary2.130.1%1st Place
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8.61Fordham University2.110.0%1st Place
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11.27Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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11.9Christopher Newport University1.070.0%1st Place
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14.27U. S. Military Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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13.29University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
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14.75Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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12.95American University0.830.0%1st Place
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14.42University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 15.4% | 16.2% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kayla McComb | 18.1% | 17.2% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Hoffmann | 12.4% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noel Ingalls | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 4.1% |
| Isaac Clark | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Mia Cooper | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Murphy | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Natalie Ross | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 4.4% |
| David Geer | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 17.1% | 20.6% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 11.5% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 18.4% | 25.5% |
| Peter Hays | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% |
| Adam Rybczynski | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 18.4% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.