← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania2.68+5.76vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+2.32vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University3.17+2.17vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.51+0.15vs Predicted
-
5Syracuse University1.40+5.88vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College2.63+0.79vs Predicted
-
7American University0.83+5.77vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University2.38-0.48vs Predicted
-
9University of Virginia3.01-3.43vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University2.11-1.28vs Predicted
-
11Hampton University2.11-2.35vs Predicted
-
12Christopher Newport University1.07+0.34vs Predicted
-
13University of Maryland0.68+0.24vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Military Academy0.26+0.27vs Predicted
-
15William and Mary2.13-6.58vs Predicted
-
16Princeton University0.21-1.29vs Predicted
-
17University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.24-2.38vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.02-5.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.76University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
-
4.32St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
-
5.17Old Dominion University3.170.1%1st Place
-
4.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.510.2%1st Place
-
10.88Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
-
6.79SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
-
12.77American University0.830.0%1st Place
-
7.52George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
-
5.57University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
-
8.72Fordham University2.110.0%1st Place
-
8.65Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
-
12.34Christopher Newport University1.070.0%1st Place
-
13.24University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
-
14.27U. S. Military Academy0.260.0%1st Place
-
8.42William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
-
14.71Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
-
14.62University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.240.0%1st Place
-
12.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Russom | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Markus Edegran | 13.4% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Hoffmann | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla McComb | 18.4% | 17.9% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 7.6% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hays | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% |
| Ian Connors | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 9.5% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Natalie Ross | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 10.9% |
| David Geer | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 17.6% | 19.6% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 18.3% | 24.4% |
| Adam Rybczynski | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 17.3% | 24.3% |
| Noel Ingalls | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.