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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.57+3.31vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.95+4.36vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.14+6.17vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.97+2.18vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.39+3.31vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.59+1.62vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.32+1.49vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.04+1.60vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79-2.25vs Predicted
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10Rollins College0.95+0.08vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.16-1.91vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.26-3.19vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.62-1.56vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.59-2.80vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University0.43-3.24vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University0.86-5.89vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University-0.15-3.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31U. S. Naval Academy2.5720.2%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Naval Academy1.9510.0%1st Place
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9.17Georgetown University1.144.2%1st Place
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6.18Georgetown University1.9710.4%1st Place
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8.31U. S. Naval Academy1.396.6%1st Place
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7.62Georgetown University1.596.6%1st Place
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8.49U. S. Naval Academy1.325.5%1st Place
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9.6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.044.0%1st Place
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6.75St. Mary's College of Maryland1.798.3%1st Place
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10.08Rollins College0.953.5%1st Place
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9.09St. Mary's College of Maryland1.164.4%1st Place
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8.81Old Dominion University1.263.8%1st Place
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11.44St. Mary's College of Maryland0.622.1%1st Place
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11.2Old Dominion University0.592.5%1st Place
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11.76Georgetown University0.432.5%1st Place
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10.11Old Dominion University0.864.3%1st Place
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13.73Georgetown University-0.150.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Allgeier | 20.2% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Trenton Shaw | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Xavier Stoldt | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Teddy Martin | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Smith | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Dominguez | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Mats Braaten | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% |
| Landon Cormie | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Milo Miller | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 5.8% |
| Henry Haddon | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.3% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| James Bounds | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 10.3% |
| Olivia Gilmore | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 11.2% |
| Adelia DeRose | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 14.8% |
| Sam Riley | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.5% |
| Jack Pryma | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 36.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.