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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bates College0.67+3.89vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University-0.79+7.21vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.05+0.87vs Predicted
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4Brown University0.33+1.74vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University-0.42+3.11vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College0.60-0.80vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University0.42-2.23vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College0.03-1.80vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont-0.62-0.41vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.20+0.20vs Predicted
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11Amherst College-0.35-3.25vs Predicted
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12McGill University-1.05-2.02vs Predicted
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13Bentley University-1.28-2.48vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.08-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.89Bates College0.6712.8%1st Place
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9.21Salve Regina University-0.793.5%1st Place
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3.87University of Rhode Island1.0520.2%1st Place
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5.74Brown University0.338.7%1st Place
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8.11Northeastern University-0.423.7%1st Place
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5.2Connecticut College0.6011.3%1st Place
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4.77Fairfield University0.4213.4%1st Place
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6.2Middlebury College0.038.2%1st Place
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8.59University of Vermont-0.623.9%1st Place
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10.2Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.202.1%1st Place
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7.75Amherst College-0.355.9%1st Place
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9.98McGill University-1.052.3%1st Place
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10.52Bentley University-1.281.9%1st Place
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9.97University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.082.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Lutton | 12.8% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sean Morrison | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 8.3% |
| Adam Strobridge | 20.2% | 18.2% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Keller Morrison | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Meadows | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 11.3% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Nolan Cooper | 13.4% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Walter Chiles | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Begin | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% |
| cole capizzo | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 19.8% |
| Nat Edmonds | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 3.3% |
| Cecilia Muller | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 15.2% |
| Brett Tardie | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 24.9% |
| Kai Latham | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 16.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.