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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58+5.87vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.37+5.66vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+0.87vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.96+5.20vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+2.03vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College4.06-0.38vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30+1.03vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University3.31-0.21vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College4.05-3.34vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.29-2.05vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.10-2.21vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut1.72-0.18vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.61-7.01vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.53-4.29vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire1.81-3.45vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.21-1.85vs Predicted
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20Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-4.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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7.66University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
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3.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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9.2Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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5.62Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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8.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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7.79Salve Regina University3.310.1%1st Place
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5.66Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.95Tufts University3.290.0%1st Place
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8.79Yale University3.100.1%1st Place
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12.82University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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6.99Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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10.71Brown University2.530.0%1st Place
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12.55University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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16.15Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
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15.31Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Oviatt | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pete Hazelett | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 20.4% | 18.0% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Heussler | 3.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 11.0% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Krysta Rohde | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schon | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Swanson | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Genoa Warner | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Presti | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 26.1% | 15.4% | 3.7% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Harvey | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 16.3% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 0.1% |
| Neal Drake | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 16.1% | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.5% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 8.0% | 21.4% | 63.1% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 39.9% | 29.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.