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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida1.60+10.07vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+5.10vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+5.50vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.30+0.81vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.04+4.10vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+3.46vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.71-0.74vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.10+1.55vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.26+3.34vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.02-0.95vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.09-1.90vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College1.51-0.69vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston1.45-0.95vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-3.09vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.75-9.08vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.15-3.44vs Predicted
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17Brown University2.04-8.24vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.45-4.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.07University of South Florida1.602.8%1st Place
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7.1Cornell University2.388.6%1st Place
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8.5Georgetown University2.205.7%1st Place
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4.81Stanford University3.3015.3%1st Place
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9.1U. S. Naval Academy2.045.1%1st Place
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9.46Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.775.0%1st Place
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6.26Yale University2.7110.2%1st Place
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9.55Harvard University2.105.0%1st Place
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12.34North Carolina State University1.262.5%1st Place
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9.05Tulane University2.025.8%1st Place
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9.1Boston College2.094.7%1st Place
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11.31Bowdoin College1.513.1%1st Place
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12.05College of Charleston1.452.8%1st Place
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10.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.033.2%1st Place
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5.92Dartmouth College2.7511.5%1st Place
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12.56Tufts University1.152.5%1st Place
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8.76Brown University2.044.5%1st Place
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13.15University of Pennsylvania1.451.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kay Brunsvold | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% |
| Bridget Green | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Piper Holthus | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 15.3% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Cordelia Burn | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% |
| Olivia Sowa | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 13.9% |
| Samantha Gardner | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Kyra Phelan | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% |
| Grace Squires | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.9% |
| Emily Bornarth | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.2% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ella Hubbard | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 16.0% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Madeleine Rice | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 20.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.