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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.27+6.83vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.17+5.66vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+4.15vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University0.69+5.39vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College1.17+2.11vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.44+1.38vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.11+1.01vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-1.61vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.50+0.75vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73-2.42vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.00-2.18vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.65-0.11vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+0.07vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California0.90-5.62vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.93-6.92vs Predicted
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16Boston University0.97-8.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.83Northwestern University1.276.7%1st Place
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7.66Fordham University1.177.3%1st Place
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7.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.278.6%1st Place
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9.39Northeastern University0.694.8%1st Place
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7.11Eckerd College1.178.3%1st Place
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7.38George Washington University1.447.8%1st Place
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8.01Tufts University1.117.2%1st Place
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6.39St. Mary's College of Maryland1.6810.4%1st Place
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9.75SUNY Maritime College0.504.0%1st Place
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7.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.737.0%1st Place
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8.82Connecticut College1.005.1%1st Place
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11.89Christopher Newport University0.651.9%1st Place
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13.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.8%1st Place
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8.38University of Southern California0.906.0%1st Place
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8.08Cornell University0.935.7%1st Place
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7.53Boston University0.977.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Weinstein | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| James Kopack | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Gavin Hudson | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 5.9% |
| Jordan Vieira | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Brayden Benesch | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 7.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| William Hurd | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 17.4% | 21.8% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 41.9% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Boris Bialer | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.