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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+9.94vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.71+4.40vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.75+2.92vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.30+0.76vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+3.57vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.10+3.51vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.45+5.18vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.60+3.12vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.04-0.30vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.15+2.43vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.38-3.68vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College1.51-0.60vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.09-4.14vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.45-0.85vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.04-6.04vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-6.66vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.02-7.89vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.26-5.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.033.5%1st Place
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6.4Yale University2.718.8%1st Place
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5.92Dartmouth College2.7511.7%1st Place
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4.76Stanford University3.3016.4%1st Place
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8.57Georgetown University2.206.2%1st Place
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9.51Harvard University2.105.1%1st Place
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12.18College of Charleston1.452.5%1st Place
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11.12University of South Florida1.602.7%1st Place
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8.7Brown University2.045.2%1st Place
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12.43Tufts University1.152.5%1st Place
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7.32Cornell University2.387.2%1st Place
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11.4Bowdoin College1.512.5%1st Place
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8.86Boston College2.096.2%1st Place
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13.15University of Pennsylvania1.452.1%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Naval Academy2.045.1%1st Place
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9.34Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.774.5%1st Place
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9.11Tulane University2.025.2%1st Place
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12.33North Carolina State University1.262.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 11.7% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 16.4% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Cordelia Burn | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Grace Squires | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Ella Hubbard | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 15.2% |
| Bridget Green | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Kyra Phelan | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Madeleine Rice | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 20.9% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Olivia Sowa | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 14.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.