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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+4.38vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College4.06+3.37vs Predicted
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3Salve Regina University3.31+4.92vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-0.04vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+2.04vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.37+1.95vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.61-1.03vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.29-1.15vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58-2.76vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30-3.16vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.96-2.78vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.53-2.48vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.10-5.20vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire1.81-2.29vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut1.72-3.23vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.21-1.85vs Predicted
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20Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-4.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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5.37Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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7.92Salve Regina University3.310.1%1st Place
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3.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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7.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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7.95University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
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6.97Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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7.85Tufts University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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9.22Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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10.52Brown University2.530.0%1st Place
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8.8Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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12.71University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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12.77University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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16.15Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
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15.3Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 13.2% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schon | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 19.5% | 18.5% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pete Hazelett | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Swanson | 6.4% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Oviatt | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Krysta Rohde | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Heussler | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Harvey | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Genoa Warner | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Neal Drake | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 17.3% | 23.6% | 14.5% | 3.3% |
| Thomas Presti | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.7% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 8.1% | 21.3% | 63.1% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 13.0% | 39.5% | 29.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.