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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+4.37vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.37+5.68vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+0.91vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College4.06+1.53vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58+1.87vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+1.34vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University3.31+0.94vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30-0.18vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.96+0.33vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.29-2.10vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.61-3.97vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.53-2.46vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire1.81-1.31vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.10-6.21vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut1.72-3.25vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-1.69vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.21-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.37Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.68University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
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3.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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5.53Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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6.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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7.94Salve Regina University3.310.1%1st Place
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7.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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9.33Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.9Tufts University3.290.0%1st Place
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7.03Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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10.54Brown University2.530.0%1st Place
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12.69University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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8.79Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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12.75University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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15.31Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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16.2Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 13.4% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pete Hazelett | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 20.0% | 16.9% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 11.3% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Oviatt | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schon | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Krysta Rohde | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Heussler | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Catherine Swanson | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Harvey | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Neal Drake | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 23.3% | 13.2% | 4.0% |
| Genoa Warner | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 22.8% | 16.4% | 3.9% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 12.8% | 42.3% | 27.5% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 20.1% | 63.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.