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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia0.02+2.78vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia0.79+0.41vs Predicted
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3American University0.05+0.48vs Predicted
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4University of Maryland-0.69+0.60vs Predicted
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5Catholic University of America-1.27+0.62vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech-0.20-2.17vs Predicted
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7William and Mary-0.18-2.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.78University of Virginia0.0213.8%1st Place
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2.41University of Virginia0.7934.1%1st Place
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3.48American University0.0516.5%1st Place
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4.6University of Maryland-0.697.6%1st Place
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5.62Catholic University of America-1.274.1%1st Place
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3.83Virginia Tech-0.2013.9%1st Place
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4.28William and Mary-0.1810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Lothrop | 13.8% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 17.7% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 6.7% |
| Andrew Montague | 34.1% | 25.8% | 18.6% | 11.8% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Karl Wagerson | 16.5% | 16.7% | 19.3% | 17.5% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 4.8% |
| Anthony Thonnard | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 17.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Benedict Gorman | 4.1% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 18.5% | 47.3% |
| Daniel Hale | 13.9% | 15.4% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 8.4% |
| Sam Dutilly | 10.0% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 17.9% | 19.5% | 12.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.