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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.06+4.37vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College4.05+3.43vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+0.92vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58+3.11vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.37+2.60vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.96+3.31vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.53+3.50vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.61-1.22vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30-0.85vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.10-1.47vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53-3.70vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.29-3.99vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut1.72-0.15vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire1.81-1.32vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University3.31-8.00vs Predicted
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17Wesleyan University-0.21-0.84vs Predicted
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20Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-4.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.37Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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5.43Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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3.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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7.6University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
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9.31Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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10.5Brown University2.530.0%1st Place
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6.78Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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8.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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8.53Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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7.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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8.01Tufts University3.290.1%1st Place
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12.85University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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12.68University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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8.0Salve Regina University3.310.0%1st Place
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16.16Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
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15.29Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Williams | 13.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 20.0% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Oviatt | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pete Hazelett | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Heussler | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Harvey | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Krysta Rohde | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Genoa Warner | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Swanson | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 16.8% | 22.3% | 17.6% | 3.6% |
| Neal Drake | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 17.6% | 24.0% | 13.8% | 3.3% |
| Matthew Schon | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 7.3% | 21.7% | 63.1% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 13.8% | 39.0% | 29.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.