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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+2.79vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College4.05+3.35vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.10+5.54vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.96+4.97vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.06+0.26vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+1.18vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.61-0.14vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.37-0.50vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire1.81+3.64vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University3.31-2.26vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.53-0.53vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58-6.08vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut1.72-1.26vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.76-5.21vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30-8.12vs Predicted
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17Wesleyan University-0.21-0.90vs Predicted
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20Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-4.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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5.35Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.54Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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8.97Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
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5.26Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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7.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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6.86Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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7.5University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
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12.64University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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7.74Salve Regina University3.310.0%1st Place
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10.47Brown University2.530.0%1st Place
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6.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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12.74University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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9.79Tufts University2.760.0%1st Place
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7.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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16.1Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
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15.28Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ingham | 21.4% | 17.0% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.5% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa Warner | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Heussler | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pete Hazelett | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Neal Drake | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 23.7% | 14.5% | 3.0% |
| Matthew Schon | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Madeleine Harvey | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Ian Oviatt | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 11.4% | 15.1% | 22.4% | 16.4% | 3.6% |
| T. Max Bulger | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Krysta Rohde | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 21.9% | 62.3% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 13.2% | 37.4% | 30.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.