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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.40+4.59vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.62+4.04vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.07+5.09vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.24+7.36vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+3.72vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.80+3.51vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.52+5.30vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64+1.85vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.14-1.73vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.86-1.30vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.68-1.39vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.78-3.06vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.73-4.12vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.25vs Predicted
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15George Washington University0.70-5.68vs Predicted
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16Cornell University0.94-7.98vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College0.85-8.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.59University of Southern California1.4013.2%1st Place
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6.04Fordham University1.6211.3%1st Place
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8.09Northeastern University1.076.5%1st Place
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11.36University of Vermont0.242.4%1st Place
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8.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.005.3%1st Place
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9.51Tufts University0.805.4%1st Place
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12.3Connecticut College0.522.3%1st Place
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9.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.644.3%1st Place
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7.27Boston University1.147.6%1st Place
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8.7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.866.4%1st Place
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9.61Northwestern University0.686.0%1st Place
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8.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.784.4%1st Place
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8.88Christopher Newport University0.735.0%1st Place
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12.75SUNY Maritime College-0.131.9%1st Place
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9.32George Washington University0.704.2%1st Place
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8.02Cornell University0.947.8%1st Place
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8.05Eckerd College0.856.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 13.2% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 14.3% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Blake Vogel | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 20.8% |
| Calvin Marsh | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% |
| Joey Richardson | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| Luke Barker | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 14.8% | 27.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 3.9% |
| Marcus Greco | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.