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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.97+6.04vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.52+3.35vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.68+5.08vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.96+3.28vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.57+0.24vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.05+0.97vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College1.85+3.87vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.24-1.85vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.73+2.17vs Predicted
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10Bates College1.32+2.50vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.29-1.66vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.15-5.48vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.62-4.78vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.52-8.74vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy1.62-3.34vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.46-1.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.04Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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5.35Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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8.08Northeastern University2.680.1%1st Place
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7.28Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
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5.24Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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6.97Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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10.87Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
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6.15University of Vermont3.240.1%1st Place
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11.17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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12.5Bates College1.320.0%1st Place
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9.34Salve Regina University2.290.1%1st Place
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6.52Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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8.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.620.0%1st Place
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5.26Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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11.66Maine Maritime Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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14.36Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Donahue | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Michael Croteau | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Scott Goodrich | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Brendan Heussler | 6.0% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Max Nickbarg | 11.6% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 7.0% |
| Olivia Crane | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Brian Gracey | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 7.7% |
| Edward Moan | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 23.3% | 16.9% |
| Christopher Jensen | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Stroebel | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Willem Sandberg | 13.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hulse | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 18.9% | 9.3% |
| Peter Markarian | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 55.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.