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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.62+4.98vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+6.65vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.14+4.27vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.07+4.32vs Predicted
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5Cornell University0.94+3.15vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.86+2.57vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.78+1.66vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University0.68+1.72vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.52+3.21vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College0.85-1.80vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.70-1.75vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.13+0.71vs Predicted
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13Tufts University0.80-3.71vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64-3.93vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.73-6.02vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.24-4.55vs Predicted
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17University of Southern California1.40-11.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.98Fordham University1.6212.0%1st Place
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8.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.005.7%1st Place
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7.27Boston University1.148.5%1st Place
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8.32Northeastern University1.076.4%1st Place
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8.15Cornell University0.945.7%1st Place
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8.57St. Mary's College of Maryland0.865.2%1st Place
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8.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.785.3%1st Place
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9.72Northwestern University0.684.5%1st Place
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12.21Connecticut College0.522.0%1st Place
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8.2Eckerd College0.856.4%1st Place
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9.25George Washington University0.705.5%1st Place
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12.71SUNY Maritime College-0.131.9%1st Place
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9.29Tufts University0.805.1%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.644.7%1st Place
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8.98Christopher Newport University0.735.5%1st Place
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11.45University of Vermont0.242.5%1st Place
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5.54University of Southern California1.4013.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Joshua Dillon | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Marcus Greco | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Joey Richardson | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 20.9% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| Luke Barker | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 26.5% |
| Blake Vogel | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
| Calvin Marsh | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 14.2% |
| Luke Harris | 13.0% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.