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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.82+5.47vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.41+2.62vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.77+3.60vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.23+0.29vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+1.63vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38+0.96vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.60+2.32vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.93-2.79vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.48-2.47vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.55-6.52vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College1.29-0.84vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy1.38-1.82vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.01-7.85vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University0.97-3.04vs Predicted
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16Bates College0.74-3.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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4.62Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.6Roger Williams University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.29Yale University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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10.32Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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6.21University of Vermont2.930.1%1st Place
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7.53Northeastern University2.480.0%1st Place
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4.48Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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11.16Middlebury College1.290.0%1st Place
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11.18Maine Maritime Academy1.380.0%1st Place
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6.15Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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11.96Salve Regina University0.970.0%1st Place
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12.44Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Schmitz | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Dan Nickerson | 14.3% | 16.9% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Rob Struckett | 12.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Cefali | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Devon Rohde | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Daniel Barry | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 8.9% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 9.5% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Becker Awqatty | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| IG Schottlaender | 14.8% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Netland | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 17.5% | 15.3% |
| Andrew McHenry | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 15.7% | 17.0% | 13.5% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Mary Clawson | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 19.9% | 23.5% |
| Christopher Calahan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 18.6% | 35.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.