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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.23+4.26vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.93+4.04vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.60+7.23vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+3.54vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.82+1.61vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.41-1.29vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University0.97+4.93vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy1.38+2.96vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38-1.16vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.77-3.23vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College1.29+0.20vs Predicted
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13Bates College0.74-0.25vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College3.55-9.35vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.01-9.07vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.48-8.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26Yale University3.230.1%1st Place
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6.04University of Vermont2.930.1%1st Place
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10.23Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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7.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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6.61Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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4.71Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.93Salve Regina University0.970.0%1st Place
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10.96Maine Maritime Academy1.380.0%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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6.77Roger Williams University2.770.1%1st Place
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11.2Middlebury College1.290.0%1st Place
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12.75Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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4.65Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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5.93Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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7.57Northeastern University2.480.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Struckett | 12.2% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 8.6% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Barry | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 16.6% | 12.6% | 6.8% |
| Lauren Cefali | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Schmitz | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Dan Nickerson | 15.0% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mary Clawson | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 15.5% | 21.3% | 24.4% |
| Andrew McHenry | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 15.6% | 18.4% | 11.2% |
| Devon Rohde | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Henry Vogel | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Ted Netland | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| Christopher Calahan | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 17.8% | 38.1% |
| IG Schottlaender | 14.5% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Becker Awqatty | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.