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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.41+3.78vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.93+4.07vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.82+3.49vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.23+1.27vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+2.62vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.01-0.06vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy1.38+3.86vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.77-1.27vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38-2.11vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.55-6.49vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.60-1.66vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University0.97-0.79vs Predicted
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14Bates College0.74-1.35vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.48-7.42vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College1.29-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.78Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.07University of Vermont2.930.1%1st Place
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6.49Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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5.27Yale University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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5.94Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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10.86Maine Maritime Academy1.380.0%1st Place
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6.73Roger Williams University2.770.1%1st Place
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7.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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4.51Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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10.34Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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12.21Salve Regina University0.970.0%1st Place
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12.65Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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7.58Northeastern University2.480.1%1st Place
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11.07Middlebury College1.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Nickerson | 14.4% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Schmitz | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Rob Struckett | 13.0% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Cefali | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 8.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Andrew McHenry | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 16.5% | 12.2% |
| Henry Vogel | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Devon Rohde | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| IG Schottlaender | 14.8% | 15.7% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Barry | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 9.0% |
| Mary Clawson | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 20.6% | 25.3% |
| Christopher Calahan | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 19.8% | 37.5% |
| Becker Awqatty | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Ted Netland | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 16.1% | 18.8% | 13.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.