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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University1.14+6.20vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.86+6.82vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.40+2.60vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.73+4.99vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.62+1.06vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64+3.66vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+1.59vs Predicted
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8George Washington University0.70+1.47vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.78+0.02vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.52+2.18vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College0.85-2.78vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.68-2.40vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.00-5.06vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.80-4.67vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.13-2.19vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.24-4.62vs Predicted
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17Cornell University0.94-8.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.2Boston University1.147.8%1st Place
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8.82St. Mary's College of Maryland0.864.7%1st Place
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5.6University of Southern California1.4012.8%1st Place
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8.99Christopher Newport University0.735.1%1st Place
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6.06Fordham University1.6212.2%1st Place
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9.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.645.0%1st Place
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8.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.005.7%1st Place
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9.47George Washington University0.705.2%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.785.4%1st Place
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12.18Connecticut College0.521.8%1st Place
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8.22Eckerd College0.855.9%1st Place
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9.6Northwestern University0.684.7%1st Place
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7.94Northeastern University1.007.0%1st Place
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9.33Tufts University0.805.1%1st Place
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12.81SUNY Maritime College-0.131.8%1st Place
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11.38University of Vermont0.243.4%1st Place
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8.15Cornell University0.946.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiare Sierra | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Luke Harris | 12.8% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Calvin Marsh | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% |
| Joey Richardson | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 2.5% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 21.5% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% |
| Charles Wilkinson | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Blake Vogel | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% |
| Luke Barker | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 27.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 13.9% |
| Marcus Greco | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.