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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+6.02vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College4.06+3.40vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+0.91vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.29+4.14vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.05+0.35vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58+1.19vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.10+1.68vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.37-0.39vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30-0.84vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.96-0.97vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.61-4.95vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.53-2.47vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire1.81-1.36vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University3.31-6.91vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut1.72-3.26vs Predicted
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17Wesleyan University-0.21-0.84vs Predicted
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20Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-4.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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5.4Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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3.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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8.14Tufts University3.290.1%1st Place
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5.35Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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8.68Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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7.61University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
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8.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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9.03Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.05Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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10.53Brown University2.530.0%1st Place
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12.64University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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8.09Salve Regina University3.310.0%1st Place
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12.74University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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16.16Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
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15.31Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Duffett | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 10.5% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 19.0% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Swanson | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 12.3% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Oviatt | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa Warner | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Pete Hazelett | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Krysta Rohde | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Heussler | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Harvey | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
| Neal Drake | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 17.6% | 22.0% | 15.1% | 3.2% |
| Matthew Schon | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 16.3% | 23.1% | 16.2% | 3.7% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 7.2% | 22.0% | 62.7% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 13.1% | 39.3% | 29.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.