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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.01+4.85vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+5.32vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.77+3.61vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.55+0.37vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.93+1.29vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.82+0.47vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.23-1.74vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.41-3.20vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38-1.15vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College1.29+1.17vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University0.72+1.48vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.48-4.23vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.60-2.53vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy1.38-3.11vs Predicted
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15Bates College0.74-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.85Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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7.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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6.61Roger Williams University2.770.1%1st Place
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4.37Connecticut College3.550.2%1st Place
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6.29University of Vermont2.930.1%1st Place
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6.47Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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5.26Yale University3.230.1%1st Place
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4.8Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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11.17Middlebury College1.290.0%1st Place
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12.48Salve Regina University0.720.0%1st Place
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7.77Northeastern University2.480.0%1st Place
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10.47Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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10.89Maine Maritime Academy1.380.0%1st Place
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12.39Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johanna Kincaid | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Cefali | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Henry Vogel | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| IG Schottlaender | 16.3% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Schmitz | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Rob Struckett | 12.1% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 14.0% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Devon Rohde | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Ted Netland | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 18.6% | 13.0% |
| Pierce Conlin | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 18.9% | 34.1% |
| Becker Awqatty | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Daniel Barry | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 9.4% |
| Andrew McHenry | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 18.2% | 9.9% |
| Christopher Calahan | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 22.2% | 30.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.