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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Olin College of Engineering0.22+4.26vs Predicted
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2Bates College-0.40+4.71vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire-0.37+3.92vs Predicted
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4McGill University0.41+0.63vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire0.10+0.22vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-1.76+5.18vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College-0.27-0.42vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-1.11+1.30vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-1.09+0.25vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.43-6.09vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-1.54-0.16vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-1.77-0.63vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42-2.27vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University-0.58-6.56vs Predicted
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15Bates College-2.52-1.98vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-2.86-2.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26Olin College of Engineering0.2212.0%1st Place
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6.71Bates College-0.407.2%1st Place
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6.92University of New Hampshire-0.376.5%1st Place
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4.63McGill University0.4115.2%1st Place
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5.22University of New Hampshire0.1011.1%1st Place
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11.18Middlebury College-1.761.5%1st Place
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6.58Dartmouth College-0.277.6%1st Place
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9.3University of New Hampshire-1.113.4%1st Place
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9.25University of New Hampshire-1.093.4%1st Place
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3.91Connecticut College0.4319.8%1st Place
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10.84University of New Hampshire-1.541.8%1st Place
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11.37University of New Hampshire-1.771.2%1st Place
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10.73University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.421.8%1st Place
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7.44Northeastern University-0.585.6%1st Place
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13.02Bates College-2.521.2%1st Place
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13.65University of New Hampshire-2.860.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jagielski | 12.0% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Frary | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ted Richardsson | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Genevieve Lau | 15.2% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Harris | 11.1% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Talia Trigg | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 7.4% |
| Rob Mailley | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Brendan OBrien | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Andrew Powers | 19.8% | 17.9% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kathleen Hanson | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 5.7% |
| Ethan Smits | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 9.1% |
| Andy Giaya | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 4.8% |
| Benjamin Wilkinson | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Mitchel Soederberg | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 20.9% | 28.4% |
| Benjamin Haddad | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 17.6% | 40.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.