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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University3.92+3.37vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.41+3.96vs Predicted
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3Wesleyan University2.01+8.16vs Predicted
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4Maine Maritime Academy3.06+2.84vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.30+4.79vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.53+2.95vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.89+0.57vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.65+0.45vs Predicted
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9Brandeis University1.25+4.58vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.41-4.07vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.73+1.07vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58+0.73vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.82-5.23vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.25-0.75vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.13-8.29vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.90-8.36vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut0.76-1.98vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.29-4.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.37Salve Regina University3.920.2%1st Place
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5.96Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.16Wesleyan University2.010.0%1st Place
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6.84Maine Maritime Academy3.060.1%1st Place
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9.79Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.300.0%1st Place
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8.95Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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7.57Bowdoin College2.890.1%1st Place
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8.45Stanford University2.650.0%1st Place
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13.58Brandeis University1.250.0%1st Place
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5.93University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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12.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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12.73Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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7.77Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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13.25Northeastern University1.250.0%1st Place
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6.71Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.64Bowdoin College2.900.1%1st Place
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15.02University of Connecticut0.760.0%1st Place
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13.2University of Rhode Island1.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Pellegrini | 18.6% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Meleney | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Angus Page | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Blake Burgess | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tevis Nichols | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Caitlin Watson | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Jeff Goodrich | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| John Ortel | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Jared Dunn | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 16.2% | 13.8% |
| Nate Jermain | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Gracey | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% |
| Andrew Morgan | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 9.6% |
| Ryan Schmitz | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Zach Shapiro | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 13.8% |
| Trevor Burd | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Edmunds | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| William Kresic | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 16.2% | 35.6% |
| Zachary O'Brien | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 12.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.