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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.52+3.41vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University3.36+2.86vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.02+6.13vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.48+6.86vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.83+4.72vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.74+1.03vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.00-0.96vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.67-3.89vs Predicted
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9Wesleyan University2.71-1.90vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.09-1.12vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.60-0.39vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.68-4.97vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.34+1.97vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.53-3.12vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy0.39-1.39vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-8.64vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut-1.50-0.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41Bowdoin College3.520.2%1st Place
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4.86Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
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9.13Stanford University2.020.0%1st Place
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10.86Harvard University1.480.0%1st Place
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9.72Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
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7.03Bowdoin College2.740.1%1st Place
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6.04Boston University3.000.1%1st Place
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4.11Tufts University3.670.2%1st Place
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7.1Wesleyan University2.710.1%1st Place
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8.88Boston College2.090.0%1st Place
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10.61University of Rhode Island1.600.0%1st Place
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7.03University of Vermont2.680.1%1st Place
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14.97Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.340.0%1st Place
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10.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.530.0%1st Place
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13.61Maine Maritime Academy0.390.0%1st Place
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7.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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16.41University of Connecticut-1.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Croteau | 17.9% | 15.6% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Carney | 14.3% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Kohrman | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Ames Lyman | 1.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 10.4% | 4.2% | 0.7% |
| Tasha Greenwood | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Tom Peabody | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Fraser | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Weigel | 19.6% | 17.3% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John McGlynn | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Evan Woodford | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Matt Wordell | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Michael Sturges | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marshall Bailey | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 15.9% | 43.5% | 20.6% |
| Zachary Drach | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin King | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 28.1% | 23.6% | 5.8% |
| Bradley Brown | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Donahoe | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 16.4% | 72.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.