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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University0.12+2.98vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire-0.00+3.72vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College0.60+0.12vs Predicted
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4Olin College of Engineering-0.92+2.78vs Predicted
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5Bates College-0.33+0.51vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-0.93+0.87vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-1.41+1.20vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College-1.42-0.04vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-2.26+2.13vs Predicted
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10McGill University-1.59-1.01vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-1.69-1.77vs Predicted
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12Bates College-1.99-1.81vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.98-2.97vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.83-4.35vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-2.99-2.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.98Northeastern University0.1217.2%1st Place
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5.72University of New Hampshire-0.008.8%1st Place
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3.12Connecticut College0.6027.8%1st Place
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6.78Olin College of Engineering-0.926.3%1st Place
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5.51Bates College-0.339.7%1st Place
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6.87University of New Hampshire-0.936.5%1st Place
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8.2University of New Hampshire-1.414.2%1st Place
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7.96Middlebury College-1.424.2%1st Place
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11.13University of New Hampshire-2.261.1%1st Place
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8.99McGill University-1.592.9%1st Place
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9.23University of New Hampshire-1.692.9%1st Place
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10.19Bates College-1.992.1%1st Place
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10.03University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.982.1%1st Place
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9.65University of New Hampshire-1.833.1%1st Place
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12.64University of New Hampshire-2.991.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Rooks | 17.2% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Sullivan | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 27.8% | 20.9% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rohan Shah | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Harry Stevenson | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Wiatrowski | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Devyn Weed | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| William Procter | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Gavin Tucker | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| Isabelle Ouimet | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Cameron Gesswin | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 4.0% |
| Stephanie Charbonnier | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 10.2% |
| Maisey Jobson | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 9.1% |
| Cameron McLean | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 6.5% |
| Jacob Mitchell | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 15.7% | 43.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.