← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy1.95+8.18vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.66vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+4.75vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University2.75+2.78vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University1.82+4.72vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.68+4.12vs Predicted
-
7Old Dominion University1.57+5.08vs Predicted
-
8Yale University1.70+3.18vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania1.71+0.68vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University2.09-1.79vs Predicted
-
11Harvard University2.45-4.01vs Predicted
-
12Tulane University2.28-4.67vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University1.62-2.10vs Predicted
-
14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.31vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-4.71vs Predicted
-
16SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.72vs Predicted
-
17University of Vermont1.05-4.23vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles1.30-6.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.18U. S. Naval Academy1.955.3%1st Place
-
6.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.6%1st Place
-
7.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.1%1st Place
-
6.78Georgetown University2.7511.0%1st Place
-
9.72George Washington University1.824.9%1st Place
-
10.12Cornell University1.684.0%1st Place
-
12.08Old Dominion University1.573.1%1st Place
-
11.18Yale University1.703.5%1st Place
-
9.68University of Pennsylvania1.715.5%1st Place
-
8.21Roger Williams University2.096.5%1st Place
-
6.99Harvard University2.459.4%1st Place
-
7.33Tulane University2.288.0%1st Place
-
10.9Fordham University1.623.0%1st Place
-
9.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.9%1st Place
-
10.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.4%1st Place
-
10.28SUNY Maritime College1.884.5%1st Place
-
12.77University of Vermont1.052.5%1st Place
-
11.4University of California at Los Angeles1.303.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 15.3% |
| Alex Adams | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Robby Meek | 9.4% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Kelly Holthus | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 21.5% |
| Marianna Shand | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.