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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.06+4.53vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+5.40vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.37+5.05vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30+4.33vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.10+3.82vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College4.05-0.13vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-3.01vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University3.31+0.06vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.02+0.46vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College3.71-3.22vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.15-2.04vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.81+0.88vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58-5.59vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.29-5.62vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut2.36-4.60vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-1.58vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.21-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.53Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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7.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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8.05University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.82Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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5.87Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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3.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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8.06Salve Regina University3.310.1%1st Place
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9.46Brown University3.020.0%1st Place
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6.78Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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8.96Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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12.88University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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7.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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8.38Tufts University3.290.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Connecticut2.360.0%1st Place
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15.42Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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16.27Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Williams | 13.1% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pete Hazelett | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Krysta Rohde | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Genoa Warner | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Wefer | 10.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 19.5% | 17.2% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schon | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jessica Claflin | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Neal Drake | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 13.0% | 28.4% | 16.8% | 3.6% |
| Ian Oviatt | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Swanson | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Simeone | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 17.9% | 7.7% | 1.0% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 11.1% | 44.4% | 29.4% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 5.6% | 22.0% | 65.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.