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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+6.56vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.45+5.16vs Predicted
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3Yale University1.70+7.96vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.00vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+4.76vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.95+3.36vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.28+0.26vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.75-1.29vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.82+0.50vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.09-1.79vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.88-0.60vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.68-2.19vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.62-2.11vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.71-4.24vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.05-2.24vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles1.30-4.46vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-6.66vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.57-5.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.9%1st Place
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7.16Harvard University2.458.3%1st Place
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10.96Yale University1.703.6%1st Place
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7.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.0%1st Place
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9.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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9.36U. S. Naval Academy1.955.2%1st Place
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7.26Tulane University2.288.3%1st Place
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6.71Georgetown University2.7510.0%1st Place
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9.5George Washington University1.825.8%1st Place
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8.21Roger Williams University2.097.4%1st Place
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10.4SUNY Maritime College1.884.0%1st Place
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9.81Cornell University1.684.7%1st Place
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10.89Fordham University1.623.5%1st Place
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9.76University of Pennsylvania1.714.9%1st Place
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12.76University of Vermont1.052.1%1st Place
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11.54University of California at Los Angeles1.303.1%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.554.5%1st Place
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12.02Old Dominion University1.572.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Robby Meek | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Alex Adams | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Kelly Holthus | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 21.7% |
| Marianna Shand | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.