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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.45+6.03vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.28+5.53vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.88+7.38vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.09+4.27vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+5.48vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.72vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.75-0.33vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.82+1.68vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.70+2.07vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-0.13vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.62-0.26vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.95-2.86vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-5.30vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.71-4.33vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.05-2.17vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.68-6.08vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.57-5.05vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles1.30-6.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.03Harvard University2.458.6%1st Place
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7.53Tulane University2.288.3%1st Place
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10.38SUNY Maritime College1.884.4%1st Place
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8.27Roger Williams University2.096.7%1st Place
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10.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.554.3%1st Place
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6.72St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.6%1st Place
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6.67Georgetown University2.759.8%1st Place
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9.68George Washington University1.825.0%1st Place
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11.07Yale University1.704.0%1st Place
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9.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.8%1st Place
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10.74Fordham University1.623.8%1st Place
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9.14U. S. Naval Academy1.955.1%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.7%1st Place
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9.67University of Pennsylvania1.714.3%1st Place
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12.83University of Vermont1.052.4%1st Place
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9.92Cornell University1.684.6%1st Place
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11.95Old Dominion University1.572.6%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Los Angeles1.304.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Meek | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Kelly Holthus | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Alex Adams | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 21.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 13.7% |
| Marianna Shand | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.