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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.60vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+8.13vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+3.79vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.82+5.64vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+5.83vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.71+3.56vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.09+1.24vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-0.27vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+1.26vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.45-3.11vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy1.95-1.92vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.70-0.97vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-1.04vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.28-6.46vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.05-2.08vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.62-5.20vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles1.30-5.71vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-8.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.7%1st Place
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10.13Cornell University1.684.3%1st Place
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6.79Georgetown University2.7511.1%1st Place
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9.64George Washington University1.825.2%1st Place
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10.83SUNY Maritime College1.883.5%1st Place
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9.56University of Pennsylvania1.715.1%1st Place
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8.24Roger Williams University2.096.5%1st Place
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7.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.1%1st Place
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10.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.554.3%1st Place
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6.89Harvard University2.458.8%1st Place
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9.08U. S. Naval Academy1.955.0%1st Place
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11.03Yale University1.703.6%1st Place
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11.96Old Dominion University1.572.8%1st Place
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7.54Tulane University2.287.5%1st Place
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12.92University of Vermont1.051.7%1st Place
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10.8Fordham University1.623.8%1st Place
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11.29University of California at Los Angeles1.303.5%1st Place
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9.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% |
| Robby Meek | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% |
| Alex Adams | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 13.4% |
| Kelly Holthus | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 20.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% |
| Marianna Shand | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.