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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+6.70vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.71+7.76vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.28+4.64vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.95+5.02vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.94+6.16vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.56vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.09+1.28vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+2.32vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.75-2.30vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.68-0.08vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.16vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.75vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-1.06vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.45-7.11vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-8.45vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.05-3.19vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.82-7.38vs Predicted
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18Yale University1.70-6.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.7%1st Place
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9.76University of Pennsylvania1.715.1%1st Place
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7.64Tulane University2.287.8%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Naval Academy1.955.3%1st Place
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11.16Fordham University1.943.0%1st Place
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10.56SUNY Maritime College1.884.1%1st Place
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8.28Roger Williams University2.096.2%1st Place
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10.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.554.5%1st Place
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6.7Georgetown University2.759.9%1st Place
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9.92Cornell University1.684.5%1st Place
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9.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.5%1st Place
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11.25University of California at Los Angeles1.303.8%1st Place
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11.94Old Dominion University1.572.1%1st Place
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6.89Harvard University2.459.5%1st Place
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6.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.6%1st Place
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12.81University of Vermont1.052.2%1st Place
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9.62George Washington University1.824.7%1st Place
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11.06Yale University1.704.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% |
| Kelly Holthus | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 13.5% |
| Robby Meek | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.6% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 22.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% |
| Alex Adams | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.