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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+6.68vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.94+9.20vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.69vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+2.69vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+4.68vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.09+2.09vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.45+0.15vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.82+1.66vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+1.34vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.68-0.06vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.57+0.84vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.71-2.15vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.28-5.52vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.05-1.04vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy1.95-5.98vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.83vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles1.30-5.56vs Predicted
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18Yale University1.70-6.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.3%1st Place
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11.2Fordham University1.943.5%1st Place
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6.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.0%1st Place
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6.69Georgetown University2.759.1%1st Place
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9.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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8.09Roger Williams University2.096.6%1st Place
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7.15Harvard University2.458.5%1st Place
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9.66George Washington University1.824.8%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.9%1st Place
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9.94Cornell University1.684.5%1st Place
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11.84Old Dominion University1.573.2%1st Place
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9.85University of Pennsylvania1.715.2%1st Place
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7.48Tulane University2.288.2%1st Place
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12.96University of Vermont1.052.4%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Naval Academy1.955.7%1st Place
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10.17SUNY Maritime College1.884.2%1st Place
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11.44University of California at Los Angeles1.303.4%1st Place
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11.14Yale University1.703.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 10.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Robby Meek | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| Kelly Holthus | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 22.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% |
| Alex Adams | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.