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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.09+7.05vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.73vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+3.73vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.98vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.45+2.00vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.30+5.28vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.94+4.12vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.82+1.54vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.57+3.03vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.68-0.14vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.05+1.69vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.70-0.97vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-3.52vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-3.50vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy1.95-5.75vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.71-6.11vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.28-9.59vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.88-7.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.05Roger Williams University2.098.0%1st Place
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6.73St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.9%1st Place
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6.73Georgetown University2.759.2%1st Place
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7.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.6%1st Place
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7.0Harvard University2.458.8%1st Place
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11.28University of California at Los Angeles1.303.2%1st Place
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11.12Fordham University1.943.5%1st Place
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9.54George Washington University1.825.2%1st Place
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12.03Old Dominion University1.572.9%1st Place
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9.86Cornell University1.684.4%1st Place
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12.69University of Vermont1.052.9%1st Place
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11.03Yale University1.703.2%1st Place
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9.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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10.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.9%1st Place
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9.25U. S. Naval Academy1.955.2%1st Place
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9.89University of Pennsylvania1.714.8%1st Place
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7.41Tulane University2.288.8%1st Place
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10.43SUNY Maritime College1.884.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Stokke | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Robby Meek | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Marianna Shand | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 13.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 20.5% |
| Alex Adams | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.