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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.78vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.82+7.67vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+4.76vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+2.62vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.70+6.04vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.49vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+3.26vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68+2.25vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.45-1.82vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.05+2.80vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.57+0.94vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.74vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy1.95-3.92vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.71-4.31vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-5.48vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.94-4.86vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.28-9.66vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.09-9.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.8%1st Place
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9.67George Washington University1.824.9%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.0%1st Place
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6.62Georgetown University2.7510.1%1st Place
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11.04Yale University1.703.4%1st Place
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10.49SUNY Maritime College1.884.7%1st Place
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10.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.554.3%1st Place
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10.25Cornell University1.684.2%1st Place
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7.18Harvard University2.458.5%1st Place
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12.8University of Vermont1.052.1%1st Place
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11.94Old Dominion University1.572.4%1st Place
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11.26University of California at Los Angeles1.303.5%1st Place
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9.08U. S. Naval Academy1.955.5%1st Place
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9.69University of Pennsylvania1.715.1%1st Place
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9.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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11.14Fordham University1.943.8%1st Place
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7.34Tulane University2.288.5%1st Place
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8.18Roger Williams University2.097.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Alex Adams | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% |
| Robby Meek | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 22.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 13.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.