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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Santa Clara University2.20+2.81vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.23+0.13vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.18+3.23vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.07+2.44vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.66-0.01vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay1.69-1.08vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy0.24+1.36vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.13+0.69vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.36+0.77vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.17-1.43vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.61-3.22vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-5.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81Santa Clara University2.200.1%1st Place
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2.13Stanford University3.230.4%1st Place
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6.23University of California at Berkeley1.180.1%1st Place
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6.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.070.0%1st Place
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4.99California Poly Maritime Academy1.660.1%1st Place
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4.92California State University Monterey Bay1.690.1%1st Place
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8.36California Poly Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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8.69University of California at Berkeley0.130.0%1st Place
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9.77University of California at Davis-0.360.0%1st Place
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8.57California State University Monterey Bay0.170.0%1st Place
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7.78University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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6.32University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOHN CONNOR BATHEN | 14.9% | 17.2% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Molly McKinney | 41.9% | 27.9% | 15.4% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Hayes | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| Shaun Prestridge | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 1.9% |
| Eric Johnson | 8.6% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Hanna Miller | 8.9% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 16.2% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Webster | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 15.7% | 14.6% |
| Kelly Goodman | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 17.9% | 18.6% |
| Ryan Wilkerson | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 19.6% | 34.7% |
| Caitiln Westemeier | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 16.3% | 16.5% | 16.1% |
| Mike McCarthy | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Ian Spilman | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.