Race 1A

emma-2023

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Arden Carleton 16.8% 16.0% 13.8% 12.4% 10.7% 9.3% 7.9% 5.0% 3.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Andrew Michels 12.6% 12.0% 12.8% 10.8% 10.7% 9.6% 9.8% 7.4% 5.8% 4.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Seamus Hendrickson 14.6% 13.2% 13.0% 10.9% 11.2% 10.4% 8.2% 6.5% 4.9% 3.8% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Jack Miller 9.5% 9.8% 9.8% 10.4% 8.8% 9.2% 10.0% 9.3% 7.3% 7.4% 5.2% 2.5% 0.8%
Domenico Sacchetti 7.3% 8.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.7% 9.5% 9.6% 8.8% 9.7% 8.1% 6.0% 3.1% 0.9%
Jennifer Falkner 4.5% 4.3% 5.4% 5.4% 6.9% 6.7% 7.9% 9.2% 10.2% 11.6% 11.3% 11.1% 5.5%
Joseph Mowrey 3.1% 4.4% 4.3% 5.4% 4.1% 5.5% 6.4% 8.0% 8.5% 9.6% 14.4% 16.1% 10.3%
Carly Irwin 2.7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.6% 4.7% 3.5% 5.8% 6.2% 7.5% 10.2% 12.4% 20.9% 16.2%
Juhi Desai 5.9% 5.3% 5.0% 5.7% 6.6% 6.6% 8.0% 9.4% 10.6% 10.8% 9.9% 10.9% 5.2%
Mason Shaw 10.5% 10.8% 11.2% 10.2% 11.3% 11.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.0% 5.5% 4.4% 1.6% 0.7%
Iain McSweeney 5.9% 5.5% 4.8% 6.4% 7.6% 8.0% 8.0% 9.6% 10.7% 9.7% 10.6% 9.6% 3.9%
Jenna Kozal 5.5% 6.0% 6.0% 7.9% 6.0% 8.1% 8.1% 10.2% 10.1% 11.2% 9.9% 7.0% 4.0%
Keegan Aerts 1.1% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.8% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 4.5% 4.8% 9.0% 14.9% 52.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.