← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University4.19+3.31vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College2.81+6.37vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University3.16+4.44vs Predicted
-
4Connecticut College3.55+2.21vs Predicted
-
5Tufts University3.37+1.86vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.23vs Predicted
-
7University of Vermont3.39-0.30vs Predicted
-
8Brown University3.69-2.19vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Naval Academy3.74-3.44vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University3.35-2.99vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania3.16-3.44vs Predicted
-
12Princeton University1.81-0.24vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81-4.15vs Predicted
-
14Columbia University1.99-2.96vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Military Academy0.00-0.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.31Yale University4.190.2%1st Place
-
8.37Dartmouth College2.810.0%1st Place
-
7.44Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
-
6.21Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
-
6.86Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
-
8.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
-
6.7University of Vermont3.390.1%1st Place
-
5.81Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
-
5.56U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
-
7.01Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
-
7.56University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
-
11.76Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
-
8.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
-
11.04Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
-
14.32U. S. Military Academy0.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morris | 17.2% | 19.2% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Scanlon | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| Gram Slattery | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| IG Schottlaender | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| William Hutchings | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Bates | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 0.7% |
| Mackenzie Spencer | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Judge Ryan | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 9.3% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 17.7% | 33.2% | 8.9% |
| Bradley Milliken | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 1.2% |
| John Croll | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 18.4% | 25.2% | 6.3% |
| Jack Pinnell | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 79.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.