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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+2.92vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.10+6.74vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.37+4.90vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30+4.14vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58+2.04vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.76+4.16vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.71-0.28vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College4.06-2.49vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53-2.52vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College4.05-5.47vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University3.31-3.78vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.02-3.93vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire1.81-1.14vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut2.36-3.59vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.15-7.36vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-1.60vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.21-1.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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8.74Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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7.9University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
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8.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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7.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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10.16Tufts University2.760.0%1st Place
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6.72Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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5.51Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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5.53Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.22Salve Regina University3.310.1%1st Place
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9.07Brown University3.020.0%1st Place
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12.86University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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11.41University of Connecticut2.360.0%1st Place
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8.64Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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15.4Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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16.26Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ingham | 22.2% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa Warner | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Pete Hazelett | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Krysta Rohde | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ian Oviatt | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| T. Max Bulger | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 12.2% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Wefer | 10.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schon | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jessica Claflin | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Neal Drake | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 26.4% | 16.4% | 4.5% |
| Christopher Simeone | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 18.2% | 7.5% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 11.1% | 45.2% | 28.7% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 6.1% | 20.9% | 65.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.