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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.40+4.81vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.86+7.04vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.14+4.31vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.09+3.95vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.87+2.44vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64+4.11vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+2.12vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.01+0.27vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College0.85-0.40vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.94-1.56vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.07-2.54vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.73-2.80vs Predicted
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13Tufts University0.80-3.23vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.01vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.68-5.21vs Predicted
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16George Washington University0.70-6.33vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.71-5.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81University of Southern California1.4012.8%1st Place
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9.04St. Mary's College of Maryland0.866.2%1st Place
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7.31Boston University1.148.8%1st Place
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7.95Connecticut College1.097.5%1st Place
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7.44University of Vermont0.877.6%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.644.8%1st Place
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9.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.005.2%1st Place
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8.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.016.0%1st Place
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8.6Eckerd College0.855.0%1st Place
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8.44Cornell University0.946.4%1st Place
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8.46Northeastern University1.075.7%1st Place
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9.2Christopher Newport University0.735.0%1st Place
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9.77Tufts University0.804.2%1st Place
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12.99SUNY Maritime College-0.132.1%1st Place
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9.79Northwestern University0.684.9%1st Place
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9.67George Washington University0.704.2%1st Place
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11.02Fordham University0.713.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Duncan Craine | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Calvin Marsh | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% |
| Tomas Riccio | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Marcus Greco | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% |
| Blake Vogel | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% |
| Luke Barker | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 30.6% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 14.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.