Race 4A

emma-2023

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Seamus Hendrickson 14.1% 14.2% 12.8% 12.6% 10.1% 11.1% 9.2% 6.4% 4.5% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Andrew Michels 11.8% 12.8% 12.3% 12.6% 10.5% 9.6% 8.6% 7.4% 5.8% 4.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Arden Carleton 16.0% 16.3% 13.8% 14.1% 12.2% 8.2% 7.6% 4.6% 3.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Jack Miller 10.5% 10.0% 10.2% 8.8% 9.8% 9.3% 10.1% 9.0% 8.6% 6.8% 3.9% 2.3% 0.6%
Mason Shaw 11.1% 11.5% 11.0% 9.6% 10.5% 11.5% 9.0% 9.2% 6.2% 5.3% 2.9% 2.1% 0.2%
Juhi Desai 5.9% 4.5% 5.3% 6.5% 7.4% 7.0% 7.7% 10.7% 10.8% 10.5% 11.5% 8.2% 4.0%
Domenico Sacchetti 8.6% 9.6% 9.7% 10.6% 8.7% 10.3% 8.8% 9.2% 9.7% 6.6% 5.0% 2.4% 1.1%
Jenna Kozal 5.7% 5.5% 6.7% 6.4% 7.8% 9.0% 8.9% 10.8% 9.8% 11.4% 8.6% 6.9% 2.5%
Keegan Aerts 0.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.9% 2.2% 2.4% 3.5% 4.6% 5.7% 9.6% 16.1% 49.6%
Jack Bergman 3.3% 3.4% 3.8% 3.9% 4.3% 4.5% 5.6% 7.1% 8.3% 10.6% 13.1% 18.4% 13.8%
Iain McSweeney 5.8% 5.2% 6.7% 6.3% 7.8% 6.7% 8.6% 8.6% 11.2% 10.7% 11.5% 7.5% 3.6%
Joseph Mowrey 4.0% 3.3% 4.1% 4.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.1% 7.0% 9.5% 12.7% 14.1% 14.6% 9.0%
Carly Irwin 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 3.1% 4.0% 5.2% 6.6% 6.5% 7.6% 10.6% 14.6% 19.2% 15.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.